Blogs

-The Greenback slides against the Euro (8:00am EST) on better than expected GBP Manufacturing PMI data this morning (52.1 actual, 50.1 expected, 49.7 previous). We are expecting an announcement for the Greece debt, but the conclusion is still uncertain with the private sector.

-We had the release of US ADP figures, which came in less than expected at (170k actual, expected 189k).

-At 10:00am we have US ISM Manufacturing PMI with estimates of 54.6, previous was 53.9.
We will see if the markets and the Euro can continue its bullish momentum into February.

The SPX 500 sits about 3 points higher than the S&P 500 as of 8:43am EST. Today is the last trading day for January. We may see some volatility as we head into a new trading month.

The EUR/USD continues to hold below 1.32, while AUD and NZD continue their strength against the USD. Equity markets have yet to take a major drop as the Greek debt problems continue. Starting tomorrow we have CHF Retail Sales (be sure to watch EUR/CHF floor peg). Bernanke testifying on Thursday, and NFP’s on Friday.

The SPX 500 sits about 8 points lower than Fridays close the S&P 500 as of 7:50am. Today we have the EU Economic Summit. The markets have started to decline as the Greek debt crisis has yet to be resolved.

The SPX 500 sits about 5 points lower (as of 9:00am) than yesterday’s close on the S&P 500 after the release of the lower than expected US GDP report (2.8% actual vs 3.0% estimates).

Greek PSI debates will get Draghi’d into the weekend as always. Anything related to Europe never seems to be resolved quickly. The Euro is hovering just above 1.31.

We now sit about 4 points higher on the SPX 500 (as of 8:45am EST). Yesterday we had Bernanke state that stimulus was back on the table. We have seen the USD decline as equities rally. When you print money, there is more available, which causes a decline in its value.

The EUR/USD has broken the 2011 October low and is creeping up to the 1.32 area. If it can continue its gains the next resistance may be the 100 day moving average coming in around 1.3386.

The SPX 500 sits about 2 points lower than Tuesday’s close on the S&P 500. This morning we had below expected results for German GDP, which has caused the markets to take a dip. The big news will be the FOMC statement later today where we will see major volatility. We will be watching for commentary regarding to any hints of a QE3.

Policy officials may have more on their hands than just Greece, if China’s landing is any less than soft. With below expected CPI data out of AUD and NZD, potentially this could give all the more reasoning for stimulus.

Greece debt talk drags on as private creditors don’t want to take a haircut. We were supposed to have results last Friday and now we are supposed to have result by February 1st. The EUR/USD has dipped below 1.30 and we will see if the EU members can continue this correction in the Euro. There have been several mentions of “selective default” for Greece.

Tomorrow we have statements by the FOMC as well as Draghi. Watch for any rumors that will shift the market as the macro trend remains bearish, but short to medium term we have seen the Euro continue its correction.

The SPX 500 sits about flat from Fridays close on the S&P 500 (as of 8:35am EST). The EUR/USD has continued to rally and break above 1.30 on the settlement of Greek debt. There hasn’t been an official announcement yet, but there Euro has been due for a correction.

The next technical speed bumps that the EUR/USD could face is the 50 day MVA at 1.3110 and the 2011 October low at 1.3144. If your under water on a EUR/USD short position and being stubborn, try checking out cross pairs like EUR/JPY (long) if the Euro continues to rally.

Greece has to payout in March and there is talk of a deal on haircuts that could be announced today. Nothing is ever certain with Europe nowadays and we are seeing profit taking in the EUR/USD after it peaked out around 1.2990 last night.

Today could turn out to be extremely volatile as all the weight is waiting on a deal for Greece haircuts. Sidelines could be the best option until we have a somewhat clear direction. There seems to be too many questions to how this deal will be structured and if it will be voluntary or forced.

The SPX 500 sits about 4 points higher than Wednesday’s close on the S&P500 (as of 7:55am EST). We may see the major pairs rally against the USD as equities continue move upwards.

The EUR/USD has broken through the 1.29 level and may continue to rally for the short term. However the overall macro trend is still bearish as no official haircuts have been confirmed.